Blood and Brinkmanship: The Endless Cycle of War in Ukraine

The numbers are stark: approximately 6,000 more Russian troops lost each month than can be recruited to replace them. This is a symptom of a larger problem – one that speaks to the unsustainable nature of Russia’s military strategy in Ukraine.

Russia’s ability to recruit new soldiers at an estimated rate of 1,000 per day has been unable to keep pace with the casualties incurred on the battlefield. The gap between recruitment and losses will only continue to grow unless Moscow can find a way to reverse its fortunes or adopt a fundamentally different approach.

This crisis is not just about Russia’s military prospects in Ukraine but also for the global order more broadly. Western officials have noted that Putin’s response to this crisis has been to escalate his campaign of attrition against Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure, echoing earlier episodes in Russian history such as the siege of Leningrad during World War II and the annexation of Crimea in 2014.

However, what sets this conflict apart is its sheer scale and complexity. Unlike previous confrontations between great powers, this war has a distinctly asymmetrical character, with one side using military force to try and break the will of another. Putin’s tactics are reminiscent of classic Soviet tactics during the Cold War era, where Moscow sought to create an atmosphere of fear and uncertainty among its adversaries.

The dynamic at play today is similar: as UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham recently visited Kyiv, Moscow issued veiled threats against British military targets in Ukraine and beyond. This is part of a long-standing Russian doctrine aimed at creating a “fractured and more vulnerable Europe” – one that is increasingly divided and uncertain about its own security.

The relative lack of attention from Western nations to this conflict is striking. While there have been some notable exceptions, much of the international community has seemed hesitant to take a more active role in the conflict. This may be due to various factors, including fear of escalation, concerns about public opinion at home, or simply the complexities of intervening in a war already so deeply entrenched.

However, this reluctance cannot persist indefinitely. As the stakes continue to rise and Russia’s military losses mount, it is essential for Western leaders to re-examine their approach to Ukraine. This means not just providing more financial aid or military equipment but also taking steps to address the systemic issues that underpin Putin’s strategy – from his reliance on propaganda and disinformation to his willingness to target civilians and civilian infrastructure.

Ultimately, this crisis is a test of the international community’s collective resolve. Will we stand by Ukraine as it fights for its sovereignty and territorial integrity? Or will we allow Russia’s tactics of attrition to succeed, creating a Europe that is increasingly fractured and vulnerable?

The answer to these questions will have far-reaching implications not just for Ukraine or even Europe itself but also for the global order more broadly. As we navigate this complex web of alliances and rivalries, one thing is clear: unless we take bold action now, the costs of inaction will only continue to grow.